
Winning the bid, losing the return
In our 2026 Mid-Year Investment Outlook (see here), we argued that the margin for safety in South African credit continues to narrow. Credit spreads have tightened despite a more complicated macro environment, while the introduction of FLAC and the transition from JIBAR to ZARONIA had failed to produce the increase in compensation that many investors initially expected. Liquidity continues to remain the dominant force. That remains our view, however, focusing only on the level of spreads risks overlooking a more interesting question: who actually controls the credit curve.