Commentaries

This quarter’s edition looks at the forces shaping markets – from the Fed’s independence and a resurgent term premium, to gold’s evolving role as a neutrality hedge, as well as South Africa’s own “rand paradox.” We examine how these anchors are keeping portfolios steady and where they’re being tested.

At first glance, year-to-date market returns may suggest that 2025 presented a calm and steady investing environment. However, beneath the surface, investors have had to navigate rising geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and highly erratic sentiment shifts.
In this Mid-Year Multi-Asset Class Report, Perpetua’s portfolio managers explain what we believe has really been driving markets. We highlight key risks, explore possible shifts in the global economic landscape, and share our approach to managing portfolios thoughtfully through volatility – while staying ready to seize opportunities.
We hope you find this commentary helpful in cutting through the noise. Enjoy the read!

We’re delighted to share Perpetua’s latest Fixed Income Quarterly Commentary with you, as we digest and contemplate what has been a very eventful first quarter of the year in which headlines have been dominated by global politics and heightened uncertainty in financial markets.

We trust you will find this publication informative and that it provides a degree of clarity to help navigate the complexities of current global and local investment markets.

We are excited to share Perpetua’s inaugural, comprehensive multi-asset class report. In this publication we discuss key macroeconomic, geopolitical and fundamental factors shaping global and domestic markets across major asset classes. We also provide our perspectives on the investment opportunities and risks which we believe exist, based on our outlook across various markets. We hope that you find it both engaging and thought-provoking. Enjoy the read!

With this backdrop in mind, I am pleased to share Perpetua’s latest Fixed Income Quarterly Commentary with you. In this quarter’s edition we reflect on key market developments in recent months and provide an updated assessment of our macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook. We see these factors as well as other fundamental drivers continuing to weigh on domestic and global fixed income markets over coming months. Ultimately this connects closely to our fixed income positioning.

Politics continue to dominate 2024 as elections kick off across the globe. In India, Modi’s party was forced into coalition politics, while Mexico saw its first female president elected, signifying a continuation of current populist policies. France and UK are on track for turbulent elections as centrists lose control in the former and the latter sees a shift from Conservative to Labour control.

As we closed the last month of what can only be described as a tumultuous quarter and brace ourselves for the rest of the year ahead, the key themes running through my mind are not the endless recession dilemma, or sticky levels of inflation, or the increasingly opaque interest rate cycle. Instead, my concerns for the quarter ahead are more personal: whether peace will finally come to the Middle East, how peaceful our national election in South Africa will be and whether the cost-of-living crises around the world will ameliorate in any meaningful way sooner rather than later.