Digesting the possibility of a coalition government
-
Date:
June 5, 2024
-
Author:
Patrick Ntshalintshali
The biggest winner in South Africa’s 2024 national elections was the demonstration of how the country’s maturing democracy has progressed. Despite the anxiety and apprehension about the consequences of a potential power shift in political support away from the ruling party, South Africa’s elections were declared free, fair and peaceful. This is an outcome which should be treasured considering the country’s fractured pre-democracy history.
We are not oblivious to the fact that many would still deem this election outcome – with the ruling ANC losing its majority by a meaningful margin – a turning point in South Africa.
It is hard to tell what kind of coalition agreements the ANC, which has been the ruling party since 1994, would form with its opposition parties. Understandably, the nation and investors alike are anxiously waiting to observe how negotiations between various political parties progress during the next eleven days. The new National Assembly has to be constituted within 14 days of the declaration of the election outcome.
The truth is that this is an unprecedented development – uncharted territory for South Africa at a national and provincial level. Its importance with regards to the future and direction of the country cannot be understated.
One cannot help but hope that our political parties will seek coalition agreements that are built on strong foundations, and trust that they are able to find good common ground when negotiating the formations and structures that would govern South Africa for the next five years. We view this as important in the context of the somewhat differing election manifestos belonging to the various political groups during their campaigning roadshows.
Ingredients for a successful coalition
This is a timely moment to reflect on some principles that may guide our thinking about what makes a successful or effective coalition government.
According to the National Democratic Institute’s Ivan Doherty, there are several essential ingredients of a successful coalition:
- The coalition must be beneficial to all of its constituent parts, including the smaller parties in the arrangement. There must be something in it for everyone.
- There must be mutual respect and understanding. Each partner must demonstrate an ability to understand the other’s point of view, even when there is a disagreement.
- There must be a willingness to compromise.
- There must be a sense of partnership, even if member parties are different in size. Partnership does not mean that all responsibilities and positions are divided evenly within the coalition, but that each grouping is respected for the unique attributes it brings to the coalition and has an equitable and fair say in how decisions are made and benefits distributed.
Doherty goes on to articulate that there are several key factors that should be considered in building a coalition, maintaining it and what makes an effective structure. At the heart of it, the coalition leadership must be decisive, recognisable and give the partners and their constituencies a clear sense of direction. There should be a viable dispute resolution mechanism established and agreed upon by all coalition partners from the outset. This mechanism can be an honest broker, ideally someone well-respected within the coalition or a person outside the coalition framework. It tends to be more effective to agree to a dispute resolution framework before the dispute arises, rather than afterwards.
A whole new world
A new political reality is landing. We realise as investors, together with our fellow industry participants and the nation at large, that we need to give the coalition government arrangements and possible multi-party agreements a chance. This might well be an opportunity to explore how a government of unity that is run by various parties (not one dominant party) can move South Africa forward.
Hopefully, we can also use these platforms as avenues to build a united, prosperous South Africa across different races, income groups, religions, beliefs and ideologies. As a country, we still have the daunting, momentous task of creating a socio-economically integrated society that shares a common vision. This is our moment to do so!